Robyn
2023-12-10 00:24A disadvantage of the leading indicators–based approach is that historically, it has not consistently worked because relationships between inputs are not static. An advantage to the econometric approach is that it provides quantitative estimates of the effects on the economy of changes in exogenous variables. ——為什么not static就會導(dǎo)致not consistently worked呢？
所屬：CFA Level III > Capital Market Expectations 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
來源： 視頻位置 相關(guān)試題
1個回答
Johnny助教
2023-12-10 17:40
該回答已被題主采納
同學(xué)你好。Leading indicator的缺陷如下：經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)可能會經(jīng)常被修正、可能給出錯誤的預(yù)測信號、只能給出yes or no之類的預(yù)測結(jié)果，；例如它只能預(yù)測經(jīng)濟是好轉(zhuǎn)還是惡化，但是無法預(yù)測經(jīng)濟究竟會增長到什么程度。
而relationships between input是計量模型的缺點，這通常是由于經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)變化，或者是模型對經(jīng)濟運行的假設(shè)出錯所導(dǎo)致的
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